Present the Anticipation of Investors and Financial Market Analysts
of Future Trends on The Serbian Financial Market
BELEXsentiment is designed to identify the anticipation of relevant market participants regarding the market movements trend in the next month. Traditionally, this kind of indicator is intended to obtain opinion of important and major market participants to be used as a guideline in the investment decision making process of a broader investment community. BELEXsentiment is calculated as the weighted value of votes of three groups of voters. The first group consists of the Stock Exchange members, the second one is represented by portfolio managers of investment and voluntary pension funds, while the third group represents the general public, i.e. users of the Belgrade Stock Exchange official site www.belex.rs. All participants can choose among seven categories expressing the direction and intensity of the anticipated market trend during the next month. The categories represent the following expectations: Strong fall, Moderate fall, Slight fall, Stagnation, Slight rise, Moderate rise and Strong rise. In the total sum of votes the Exchange members and representatives of funds account for 45%, while the votes obtained from the internet presentation account for 10%. Upon collection of electronic voting lists of all members, BELEXsentiment is calculated and published on the Belgrade Stock Exchange web site, together with a list of members and institutions participating in its creation for the given month. BELEXsentiment has the base value of 100 points, and can vary in the range of 0-200 points. The value of BELEXsentiment which is less than 100 indicates negative expectations of market participants (sentiment), while the one above 100 indicates their positive expectations. Such potential scale range at the same time indicates the intensity of market expectations, thus in interpreting its value deviations from the base value (100) are established, as well as a change in value compared to the previous month. The description itself is left to the participants as much as it is possible, namely, to those whose expectations in the previous month most closely approached the achieved market results.
DATE – Date; CLOSE – Index BELEXsentiment